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JetNet iQ Third Quarter 2012 Survey Finds More Optimism Among Respondents
October 30, 2012
Add JetNet to the list of forecasters predicting a gradual but steady turnaround for the business aircraft market. The Utica, NY-based aviation market intelligence firm released results from its 2012 Third Quarter JetNet iQ survey Tuesday during a “State of the Market” briefing at NBAA2012 in Orlando, FL.
JetNet forecasts a 10-year growth cycle starting this year and lasting into the next decade. The company predicts that 10,424 business jets, with a total value of $253 billion, will be delivered over the period – figures which track closely to those forecast on Oct. 28 by Honeywell Aerospace. JetNet also called 2011 the trough of the current recession, as has Honeywell.
“We believe we’re on the verge of quite a significant recovery for the industry,” said Rolland Vincent, president of Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC and creator/director of JetNet iQ, which has conducted its quarterly surveys since the first quarter of 2011.
Other key findings from the report:
- Business jet inventory rates are forecast to return to pre-recession levels in the next 18 to 24 months.
- Full-sale transactions for all business jet categories rose by 4.1 percent, while asking prices increased by 3.6 percent in the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, 2012, from a year earlier.
- U.S. business jet utilization has yet to recover fully from the recession with usage running 25 percent below the 2001–2007 cycle.
- 38 percent of owner/operators surveyed said they have delayed a new aircraft purchase since 2008, while 30 percent have opted to refurbish an existing jet.
- 52 percent of all owner/operators surveyed worldwide say the market has past the low-point and is improving.
- The largest inhibitor to the purchase of an aircraft today is that survey respondents don’t need another plane (18.4 percent), followed by concerns about the economy and/or the regulatory environment (14.4 percent). Nearly 5 percent of respondents said that negative public opinion about business aviation has led them not to buy a business jet.
Elsewhere, the survey found that while 50 percent of respondents who plan to make a purchase within 12 months will buy a large cabin jet, demand for mid-sized aircraft is growing. In fact, 47.3 percent of those who plan a purchase in the next one to five years said they plan to buy a mid-cabin business jet.
More than 500 respondents from 60 countries participated in the 2012 third quarter survey. Since its creation, JetNet iQ has surveyed more than 3,500 owner/operators in about 104 countries. More than a third of all respondents are chief pilots or head of a flight department.